The Welsh Badger Problem

A debate about bovine tuberculosis where the motion is universally agreed has to be unusual, but that's what happened at the Welsh Assembly last week.

That’s not to say there wasn't any disagreement in the Chamber, but as I’d already pointed out, the motion was worded in such a way that disagreement was difficult: everyone agrees that the Welsh Government should do something about bovine TB. The question is what?

So what was the point of the debate? Led by Plaid Cymru, UKIP and the Conservatives, perhaps the deabte was more a signal of intention that this was going to be an issue that they’d be pressing the Labour-led administration on over the next 4 years. Politically, it makes sense: its something the opposition can cause trouble with, particularly as there’s probably more AMs on the side of a badger cull than those against.

Beyond the party politics of bovine TB, was there anything to be learned from the debate?

Often, debates on bovine TB try (unsuccessfully) to engage with the scientific evidence. This time, there was little of that. Most AMs tended to tell personal stories about the social and economic impacts of bovine TB upon themselves and their constituents. Interestingly, there’s actually very little rigorous evidence of the social and economic impacts of bovine TB. There’s only one published study of farmers’ mental health that compares farmers with and without bovine TB (those without TB had better mental health). Given its importance, it's a surprise there’s not more research. A shame too, that when Defra initiated a new project to look at this, they withdrew the funding at the last minute and redirected it to other research instead. If its important to Welsh AMs, maybe they should seek more evidence?

Does this say anything about AMs reluctance to get involved in scientific debate? Joyce Watson (Lab) did raise the ghost of the Krebs trials, whilst others referred to the expertise of the British Veterinary Assocation for guidance. Expertise on animal disease isnt limited to any discipline, like veterinary science, but referring to the BVA was an exercise in boundary making around those who can and should speak for cattle and wildlife.  To quote Llyr Gruffudd (PC): “What are the experts saying? What do they tell us? Well, ask the BVA, the association representing British Vets – they are in favour of badger culling as part of a comprehensive eradication strategy, and that is exactly what is needed in my view too”.

Brexit is the one ‘new’ ingredient that has potential to throw a spanner into TB policy. Some AMs pointed out the potential implications for trade if bovine TB wasn't sorted out, correctly pointing out that maintaining market access was a key factor in driving forward eradication programmes in New Zealand. That had always been the case in New Zealand, since the beginning of its eradication programme in the 1950s. It’s never been an issue here. Sometimes policy only changes as a result of dramatic shocks allowing it to be reframed in a new way (in this case as a problem of market access). But is there an appetitive in Wales for the kind of dramatic social and economic change that finally got New Zealand’s TB eradication programme back on track in the 1980s and 90s? Neither is the history of cooperative working and the desire for Government to stand backchat was central to New Zealand’s success present in Wales. Which leads to a final point…

Despite the desire – in some quarters – to get on with a badger cull, none of the AMs in favour described how it would take place. Or more precisely, who would be responsible for it. In New Zealand, wildlife controls are paid for by farmers (with some support from the Government) who also directly fund the agency responsible for managing bovine TB. In England too, the culls are being paid for by farmers. What of Wales? Who will pay for a badger cull? Who will be responsible for delivering eradication? Is Wales going to go down in history as the first Government to successfully eradicate bovine TB without the involvement of the agricultural industry? That would be some achievement, given the entrenched reliance on the State in Wales to solve problems, captured best in farmers’ belief that “as it has been the government that got us into this mess, it should be them who get us out of it”.

Answers to these questions may become more apparent after October 18^th when the Minister for Agriculture makes a statement on bovine TB policy in Wales.

The full transcript of the debate is available here.