A (new) Welsh Badger Cull?

On Wednesday, Assembly Members will be debating the Welsh Government’s bovine tuberculosis policy.

The debate proposes that the National Assembly for Wales “takes decisive action to tackle bovine TB by committing to use the most effective measures to control and eradicate bovine TB and ensuring that testing and movement restrictions are proportionate to the disease status of an area”.

The motion is suitably vague, perhaps, for everyone to agree to this. Who doesn’t want to take "decisive action" and use "the most effective measures" for anything?

But ‘decisive action’ is simply subtext for a badger cull, which is harder to get agreement on. Comments Simon Thomas (Plaid Cymru spokesman for Rural Affairs) and Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid Cymru) make this clear, calling for “a wider range of measures, including stronger action to tackle TB in wildlife”.

The debate comes at an interesting time: the Welsh Government is reviewing its TB policy following the end of the vaccination trial in the Intensive Treatment Area. Whilst the numbers of TB outbreaks have been falling, the number of cattle slaughtered has been rising. In England, the number of badger cull zones have been increased, some of which are close to the Welsh border.

Perhaps most interesting are the political dynamics of the Assembly. The Labour government have long resisted any call for a badger cull with former minster Alun Davies suggesting that public opposition was so great that politicians would not get elected because of it. As the debate is on the last day of the Labour conference, how many Labour AMs will turn up to defend their policy?

But the current Labour administration is propped up by the Assembly’s sole Lib Dem – Kirsty Williams – who, as a farmer, has made her views known about a badger cull. In pre-election hustings in April, she commented that the Welsh Government’s measures “have gone as far as they can, but I fear we will never get clear of this disease without involving wildlife”. Nationally, the Lib Dems’ view varies. The question is, what role could Ms Williams play in shifting the ground towards a badger cull policy.

Other parties aren’t exactly united over it, though. Whilst Plaid Cymru portrays itself as the party of rural Wales, what about its urban/valleys AMs, like its leader Leanne Wood? Back in 2015, Ms Wood said that the party had “moved away” from a badger cull policy. In the run up to the 2016 Assembly election, this had changed to seeing “what the evidence tells us", whilst adding: "I'm not someone whose going to go all out for a cull of badgers".

The outcome of the debate and vote is more likely to show that it is not for nothing that bovine TB is known as the political disease.