The Welsh Badger Problem

A debate about bovine tuberculosis where the motion is universally agreed has to be unusual, but that's what happened at the Welsh Assembly last week.

That’s not to say there wasn't any disagreement in the Chamber, but as I’d already pointed out, the motion was worded in such a way that disagreement was difficult: everyone agrees that the Welsh Government should do something about bovine TB. The question is what?

So what was the point of the debate? Led by Plaid Cymru, UKIP and the Conservatives, perhaps the deabte was more a signal of intention that this was going to be an issue that they’d be pressing the Labour-led administration on over the next 4 years. Politically, it makes sense: its something the opposition can cause trouble with, particularly as there’s probably more AMs on the side of a badger cull than those against.

Beyond the party politics of bovine TB, was there anything to be learned from the debate?

Often, debates on bovine TB try (unsuccessfully) to engage with the scientific evidence. This time, there was little of that. Most AMs tended to tell personal stories about the social and economic impacts of bovine TB upon themselves and their constituents. Interestingly, there’s actually very little rigorous evidence of the social and economic impacts of bovine TB. There’s only one published study of farmers’ mental health that compares farmers with and without bovine TB (those without TB had better mental health). Given its importance, it's a surprise there’s not more research. A shame too, that when Defra initiated a new project to look at this, they withdrew the funding at the last minute and redirected it to other research instead. If its important to Welsh AMs, maybe they should seek more evidence?

Does this say anything about AMs reluctance to get involved in scientific debate? Joyce Watson (Lab) did raise the ghost of the Krebs trials, whilst others referred to the expertise of the British Veterinary Assocation for guidance. Expertise on animal disease isnt limited to any discipline, like veterinary science, but referring to the BVA was an exercise in boundary making around those who can and should speak for cattle and wildlife.  To quote Llyr Gruffudd (PC): “What are the experts saying? What do they tell us? Well, ask the BVA, the association representing British Vets – they are in favour of badger culling as part of a comprehensive eradication strategy, and that is exactly what is needed in my view too”.

Brexit is the one ‘new’ ingredient that has potential to throw a spanner into TB policy. Some AMs pointed out the potential implications for trade if bovine TB wasn't sorted out, correctly pointing out that maintaining market access was a key factor in driving forward eradication programmes in New Zealand. That had always been the case in New Zealand, since the beginning of its eradication programme in the 1950s. It’s never been an issue here. Sometimes policy only changes as a result of dramatic shocks allowing it to be reframed in a new way (in this case as a problem of market access). But is there an appetitive in Wales for the kind of dramatic social and economic change that finally got New Zealand’s TB eradication programme back on track in the 1980s and 90s? Neither is the history of cooperative working and the desire for Government to stand backchat was central to New Zealand’s success present in Wales. Which leads to a final point…

Despite the desire – in some quarters – to get on with a badger cull, none of the AMs in favour described how it would take place. Or more precisely, who would be responsible for it. In New Zealand, wildlife controls are paid for by farmers (with some support from the Government) who also directly fund the agency responsible for managing bovine TB. In England too, the culls are being paid for by farmers. What of Wales? Who will pay for a badger cull? Who will be responsible for delivering eradication? Is Wales going to go down in history as the first Government to successfully eradicate bovine TB without the involvement of the agricultural industry? That would be some achievement, given the entrenched reliance on the State in Wales to solve problems, captured best in farmers’ belief that “as it has been the government that got us into this mess, it should be them who get us out of it”.

Answers to these questions may become more apparent after October 18^th when the Minister for Agriculture makes a statement on bovine TB policy in Wales.

The full transcript of the debate is available here.

A (new) Welsh Badger Cull?

On Wednesday, Assembly Members will be debating the Welsh Government’s bovine tuberculosis policy.

The debate proposes that the National Assembly for Wales “takes decisive action to tackle bovine TB by committing to use the most effective measures to control and eradicate bovine TB and ensuring that testing and movement restrictions are proportionate to the disease status of an area”.

The motion is suitably vague, perhaps, for everyone to agree to this. Who doesn’t want to take "decisive action" and use "the most effective measures" for anything?

But ‘decisive action’ is simply subtext for a badger cull, which is harder to get agreement on. Comments Simon Thomas (Plaid Cymru spokesman for Rural Affairs) and Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid Cymru) make this clear, calling for “a wider range of measures, including stronger action to tackle TB in wildlife”.

The debate comes at an interesting time: the Welsh Government is reviewing its TB policy following the end of the vaccination trial in the Intensive Treatment Area. Whilst the numbers of TB outbreaks have been falling, the number of cattle slaughtered has been rising. In England, the number of badger cull zones have been increased, some of which are close to the Welsh border.

Perhaps most interesting are the political dynamics of the Assembly. The Labour government have long resisted any call for a badger cull with former minster Alun Davies suggesting that public opposition was so great that politicians would not get elected because of it. As the debate is on the last day of the Labour conference, how many Labour AMs will turn up to defend their policy?

But the current Labour administration is propped up by the Assembly’s sole Lib Dem – Kirsty Williams – who, as a farmer, has made her views known about a badger cull. In pre-election hustings in April, she commented that the Welsh Government’s measures “have gone as far as they can, but I fear we will never get clear of this disease without involving wildlife”. Nationally, the Lib Dems’ view varies. The question is, what role could Ms Williams play in shifting the ground towards a badger cull policy.

Other parties aren’t exactly united over it, though. Whilst Plaid Cymru portrays itself as the party of rural Wales, what about its urban/valleys AMs, like its leader Leanne Wood? Back in 2015, Ms Wood said that the party had “moved away” from a badger cull policy. In the run up to the 2016 Assembly election, this had changed to seeing “what the evidence tells us", whilst adding: "I'm not someone whose going to go all out for a cull of badgers".

The outcome of the debate and vote is more likely to show that it is not for nothing that bovine TB is known as the political disease.